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Is the United States too big to fail? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Guerin Lee Green   
Monday, 24 December 2007
Too big to fail was the language, of course, used when the Federal Reserve and big banks stepped in to bail out the hedge fund Long Term Capital (LTC) a decade ago. LTC was viewed as too big, and too entangled with the financial sector of the global economy to be allowed to go belly up. The resulting financial waves would have swamped the economy, or so the argument goes.

Too big? That same logic is now being applied to the United States. The combination of sub-prime mortgage market disaster, and the dollar's weakness against foreign currencies, put the world's economy at grave risk. Renowned money-man Jim Cramer, who likened the foreclosure mess to the Great Depression on Tim Russert's show on MSNBC, is one the few commentators in major media to tell the truth about the risk to the U.S. economy, and frankly, your household. Cramer said that he expected mortgage foreclosures to top two million. Two million empty homes, two million displaced families. That's the entire population of the Denver metro area.

Too big? It seems that way, as the European Central Bank has injected $501 billion to ease credit and liquidity problems (week of December 17).

Half a trillion dollars, at 4.21%, is the cost of a weak dollar and the sub-prime mess abroad.

Central banks are stepping up to pressure short-term interest rates downward at the end of the year. The Bank of England just dropped a cool $20 billion in short-term notes, at just under 6%.

So while Europe and oil-producing nations have acted to stop a run on the dollar and squeeze rates downward, the obvious question becomes - is this generous, enlightened self-interest or a series of desperate measures to keep the contagion of default limited to the U.S.?

The answer will only be evident in hindsight, although it is clear that the rest of the world believes the U.S. is too big to be allowed to fail.

But a bigger question is, why aren't economic policymakers being straight with the public? You can argue that they don't want to spook the market, or scare consumers buying on credit during the holiday season. But it is an absence of transparency in financial markets, an accurate rendering of the risks associated with all that weak credit, that got us in the mess to begin with. Banks, retirement funds and investors bought up securitized mortgages, which in hindsight, weren't all that secure.

Then there is the Bush Administration, who along with the Federal Reserve, have been letting the dollar fall. That has helped exports, propping up our economy, maybe by as much as 1% of our GDP growth this year. But the reckless debt of the Bush Administration— remember, cutting taxes while we went to war— has devalued our currency so badly that oil prices nearly hit $100 a barrel and the Chinese, who own $1.5 trillion in dollars, more than $1,000 for each and every Chinese citizen, are nervous.

Already in many markets it is very difficult to get a mortgage. Colorado is a no-go zone for many national lenders. Housing makes up more than 15% of Colorado's economy. We are very close to the edge.

 
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